CORE Polar Initiative

Benefits, Scientific Impact and Public Engagement

Beyond the attention that will be brought to the record-setting ‘firsts’ of the expedition, the TCP effort will provide an excellent opportunity to present the crisis of climate change to the public. The expedition team has an outstanding record of public presentations and interaction with the media on both Antarctic science and the science of climate change. The excitement and interest in the story of The Coldest Place expedition will create a very positive forum for talking about the ongoing warming of our planet.

The Coldest Place aims to further our collective understanding of geoscience in the most inhospitable place on earth. The data collected will inform science in the region as it relates to air temperature and climate patterns, and data collection of global patterns as they interact with Antarctica. The location is one of the least visited sites on Earth. The project is a remaining crown jewel of Antarctica research, a target that captures both the public’s imagination and scientific interest, simple in concept, very difficult to execute and achieve success. Its science is easy to grasp by civil society and communicate to the media, making it an accessible path to explain the complex and important topic of Antarctica’s ongoing change. At a time of heightened confusion on scientific matters from unabashed attacks, the mission’s purpose remains core to our scientific principles: to push the boundaries of knowledge and to make that knowledge accessible and compelling to inspire and guide the next generation of research and scientists.

CORE Polar Initiative and the Future of Earth’s Climate Patterns

In our earlier study using satellite data (Scambos et al., 2018), we were able to use multiple passes of the MODIS sensor data to track extreme low-temperature events as they developed. This revealed an unexpected change in the cooling trends of the surface. As temperatures moved below -75°C, the pace of cooling slowed. We found that at -75°C, cooling is largely blocked by a CO₂ absorption band. Blocking the emission of thermal radiation makes the atmosphere act like a blanket, explaining the slower cooling rate. Moreover, as cooling continued to -95° and below, the thermal emission peak moves into a range blocked by water vapor bands. The strength of this blocking is strongly controlled by the dryness of the air column above the snow. Only under the most extreme, driest atmospheric conditions is it possible for the surface to cool to -98°C, and then, only when the surface air layer is very stable for several days. Total precipitable water in the entire air column is generally <0.5 mm during record cold events. Given this insight, future increases in CO₂ and water vapor in the Antarctic air layer may prevent events at these temperatures from occurring at all. The main cause of warming for the entire Earth is this same blocking effect, causing heat to be trapped in the air because less of it can escape to space. But another effect also plays a role. The main circulation pattern around Antarctica is a kind of ‘polar vortex’ called the Southern Annular Mode. This vast circular pattern surrounding the continent varies in strength on weekly to monthly timescales. When it is stronger, the winds surrounding the continent blow more intensely, isolating the interior from warm air intrusions from the north. This stronger SAM pattern increases the chances for extreme low temperatures on the Plateau. Over the past few decades, the SAM pattern has gradually increased. This trend towards a stronger SAM vortex in the south is generally attributed to the seasonal formation of the ozone hole and increased sea-surface warming in the temperate and tropical latitudes. These two competing effects create an interesting story for the future trend of Earth’s coldest temperatures.